Third, uneven economic interdependence can be weaponized by the less dependent party, but when the stakes are symmetrical, there is little power in interdependence. But while economic interdependence can raise the costs of war, it clearly does not prevent it. His government increased Germany’s imports of, and dependence on, Russian oil and gas, perhaps hoping that breaking trade ties would be too costly for either side. While this lesson used to be widely recognized – particularly after World War I broke out among the world’s leading trade partners – it was ignored by German policymakers such as former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder. Second, economic interdependence does not prevent war. This outcome does not reflect any superior Russian nuclear capability rather, it reflects the gap between Putin’s definition of Ukraine as a vital national interest and the West’s definition of Ukraine as an important but less vital interest. Putin’s threats have prevented Western governments from sending troops (though not equipment) to Ukraine. The West has been deterred, but only up to a point. For example, arguments that the era of tank warfare is over have been refuted as the battle has moved from Kyiv’s northern suburbs to the eastern plains of the Donbas.īut even at this early stage, there are at least eight lessons – some old, some new – that the world is learning (or relearning) from the war in Ukraine.įirst, nuclear deterrence works, but it depends on relative stakes more than on capabilities. Since it is too early to guess even when the war will end, some conclusions are obviously premature. Ultimately, though, the outcome will be determined by facts on the ground. While some observers have urged an early ceasefire, others have emphasized the importance of punishing Russian aggression. The war is still raging, and no one knows when or how it will end. Hen Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his invasion of Ukraine on February 24, he envisaged a quick seizure of Kyiv and a change of government analogous to Soviet interventions in Budapest in 1956 and Prague in 1968.
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